Did the Solar Eclipse Path of Totality Just Change? Here's What to Know
A new viral news story claims some cities just "lost" totality. A NASA scientist explains what's going on.
If you've made it here, chances are you are worried that your pre-decided "prime location within the solar eclipse's path of totality" is not so prime anymore.
Recently, some news that the path of totality suddenly "moved" has been making headlines, and some eclipse chasers across the country have started to worry that they might not witness totality anymore. But don't stress, we're here to help—even better, NASA scientists are.
What the theory claims is that, due to newfound uncertainty around the size of the sun, the width of the predicted path of totality is actually a little off. New calculations actually make it slightly narrower than what it was before, which means that some cities and areas that were previously identified as being located within the path of totality, are now actually just outside of it. In short, people in those cities wouldn't be able to see the moon completely blocking off the sun on April 8.
Don't change your travel plans just yet. It isn't as big of a shift as it sounds like.
"Calculations that use a slightly larger radius for the size of the sun yield an eclipse path that is slightly narrower," Dr. Michael Kirk, a research scientist in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told Thrillist. "This difference would only affect cities on the very edge of the path of totality, where blanket predictions are difficult regardless—a few city blocks one way or the other could mean 20, 10, or 0 seconds of totality."
Additionally, the size of the sun isn't the only factor that could affect the path's predicted width and size. "Uncertainty in the Earth's rotation can also affect eclipse predictions on this level," explains Dr. Kirk. "Traveling towards the center of the path of totality—even a mile or two—will quickly increase the length of totality that people can see."
I know what you're really wondering, though. Does this mean that NASA (and everyone else!) was wrong about the previously reported path of totality? Well, kind of—but also, not really. Predictions and calculations of this kind always take into account a margin of error, so if you look directly at the inch measurements then sure, everyone's prediction is probably a little off.
"I would agree that given all of the uncertainty, probably all maps are at least a little wrong," says Dr. Kirk. "NASA uses all of the measurements from our fleet of Earth, sun and moon observations, but it's still not enough for a 100% accurate map."
What's the solution, then? According to Dr. Kirk, staying away from the path's edge should be enough. "If you are right near the edge of totality," he says, "I personally wouldn't count on the prediction from us or anyone else."
Ready to go stargazing?
Here are all the best stargazing events that you can get out and see this month or you could stay in and stream the northern lights from home. If you're just getting started, check out our guide to astronomy for beginners or easy stargazing road trips from big US cities.